Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 21.558430 23.402375 25.386592 27.689941 30.302098 33.186526 36.631954
2025-12-21 19.126278 21.758475 24.790865 28.582854 33.255618 38.903984 46.372732
2025-12-28 16.912443 19.906533 23.534504 28.338473 34.665946 42.918551 54.861345
2026-01-04 15.368998 18.586465 22.647259 28.286445 36.152069 47.133313 64.432894
2026-01-11 14.322406 17.726036 22.175849 28.621724 38.095964 52.204250 76.386070
2026-01-18 13.320413 16.794624 21.468328 28.479538 39.254193 56.234930 87.686723
2026-01-25 12.453827 15.950173 20.769635 28.222547 40.138468 59.917667 99.364721
2026-02-01 11.772844 15.294556 20.258596 28.155534 41.265910 64.160120 113.391728
2026-02-08 11.140560 14.651975 19.698301 27.928762 42.062518 67.924313 127.702142
2026-02-15 10.567859 14.050089 19.141222 27.632956 42.673227 71.425363 142.726636
2026-02-22 10.065213 13.514624 18.637901 27.362887 43.273540 75.002149 159.432507
2026-03-01 9.633656 13.055838 18.214983 27.177549 43.990691 78.955032 179.015724
2026-03-08 9.198572 12.572795 17.729976 26.856644 44.441858 82.523667 199.767878
2026-03-15 9.069601 12.550110 17.977097 27.846994 47.642804 93.273265 251.437976
2026-03-22 8.720191 12.162455 17.599565 27.666061 48.402998 98.290434 286.692225
2026-03-29 8.427647 11.847763 17.320397 27.637879 49.484335 104.460641 332.715695
2026-04-05 8.221524 11.658787 17.238120 27.971370 51.416909 113.584523 403.578905
2026-04-12 7.951231 11.351201 16.931475 27.837418 52.256089 119.817960 468.261622
2026-04-19 7.681798 11.031674 16.584079 27.590076 52.790894 125.319052 537.910487
2026-04-26 7.459398 10.779061 16.338709 27.525779 53.765401 132.624084 635.382220
2026-05-03 7.227986 10.500776 16.031295 27.306408 54.320410 138.738081 738.943545
2026-05-10 7.001202 10.220513 15.704920 27.020002 54.664622 144.274792 854.313755
2026-05-17 6.791535 9.960602 15.401809 26.758429 55.041737 150.143455 995.543826